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ABSTRACT
In this project we attempt to implement machine learning approach to predict stock prices. Machine learning is effectively implemented in forecasting stock prices. The objective is to predict the stock prices in order to make more informed and accurate investment decisions. We propose a stock price prediction system that integrates mathematical functions, machine learning, and other external factors for the purpose of achieving better stock prediction accuracy and issuing profitable trades.
There are two types of stocks. You may know of intraday trading by the commonly used term “day trading.” Inter day traders hold securities positions from atleast one day to the next and often for several days to weeks or months. LSTMs are very powerful in sequence prediction problems because they’re able to store past information. This is important in our case because the previous price of a stock is crucial in predicting its future price. While predicting the actual price of a stock is an uphill climb, we can build a model that will predict whether the price will go up or down.
Keywords: LSTM, CNN, ML, DL, Trade Open, Trade Close, Trade Low, Trade High
INTRODUCTION
The financial market is a dynamic and composite system where people can buy and sell currencies, stocks, equities and derivatives over virtual platforms supported by brokers. The stock market allows investors to own shares of public companies through trading either by exchange or over the counter markets. This market has given investors the chance of gaining money and having a prosperous life through investing small initial amounts of money, low risk compared to the risk of opening new business or the need of high salary career. Stock markets are affected by many factors causing the uncertainty and high volatility in the market. Although humans can take orders and submit them to the market, automated trading systems (ATS) that are operated by the implementation of computer programs can perform better and with higher momentum in submitting orders than any human. However, to evaluate and control the performance of ATSs, the implementation of risk strategies and safety measures applied based on human judgements are required. Many factors are incorporated and considered when developing an ATS, for instance, trading strategy to be adopted, complex mathematical functions that reflect the state of a specific stock, machine learning algorithms that enable the prediction of the future stock value, and specific news related to the stock being analysed. Time-series prediction is a common technique widely used in many real-world applications such as weather forecasting and financial market prediction. It uses the continuous data in a period of time to predict the result in the next time unit. Many time series prediction algorithms have shown their effectiveness in practice. The most common algorithms now are based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), as well as its special type – Long-short Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). Stock market is a typical area that presents time-series data and many researchers study on it and proposed various models. In this project, LSTM model is used to predict the stock price.
Automated Stock Price Prediction Using Machine Learning
The research work done by Mariam Moukalled Wassim El-Hajj Mohamad Jaber Computer Science Department American University of Beirut. Traditionally and in order to predict market movement, investors used to analyse the stock prices and stock indicators in addition to the news related to these stocks. Hence, the importance of news on the stock price movement. Most of the previous work in this industry focused on either classifying the released market news as (positive, negative, neutral) and demonstrating their effect on the stock price or focused on the historical price movement and predicted their future movement. In this work, we propose an automated trading system that integrates mathematical functions, machine learning, and other external factors such as news’ sentiments for the purpose of achieving better stock prediction accuracy and issuing profitable trades. Particularly, we aim to determine the price or the trend of a certain stock for the coming end-of-day considering the first several trading hours of the day. To achieve this goal, we trained traditional machine learning algorithms and created/trained multiple deep learning models taking into consideration the importance of the relevant news. Various experiments were conducted, the highest accuracy (82.91%) of which was achieved using SVM for Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock.
